Watching our fearless leader’s journey into AndroidWorld has been fantastically entertaining, as Mike’s mission to bring Google Voice to the iPhone is presented as a move to the free open Google voice device hoedown. Entertaining mostly because if the real truth were revealed, we would understand how Machiavellian this “revolution” really is, and how Arrington, Google, and Apple are locked in a conspiracy to oust the real villain of the era, the Dumb Pipe.
Strip away the religious fervor of the Arrington plan — the tyranny of the AppStore, the inability to crush your iPhone battery into rubble by running endlessly mesmerizing apps, the frustration with the speed of the massive disruption of social space triggered by the iPhone’s invention — strip the arguments away and you might glimpse the true reality of what’s going on. Namely, that Apple is conspiring with Google to force the FCC to “force” Apple to, regrettably, open the door to VoIP and the Universal Inbox.
Why did Apple let Google in in the first place, with YouTube, Gmail, and Maps? Because the alliance served Apple incredibly well in bringing an intuitive composite interface to the exciting new world of a real Web-aware phone. But the deal served a much larger purpose, to prod AT&T and by extension the rest of the carriers to move to flat data pricing and support for alternatives to the blockades erected against Flash, tethering, SMS, and other revenue safe zones “respected” by Apple’s political design structures.
In each case, Apple could sit back and wait for the market to get noisy about the restrictions, let Google carry the ball forward against the carriers, and then eventually cave in to the “realities” of the marketplace. If anyone noticed that it might appear to be in both Google’s and Apple’s best interest to squeeze the carriers into compliance, then all that would need to be done to avoid the appearance of a counter-cartel would be to resign a board seat or two, make a lot of noise for the benefit of an FCC who is desperate to have any role before VoIP demolishes their seat at the table, and tease the digerati avant-garde with cool services to the point where they can’t live without their 2010 fix.
Let’s get real about this Google Voice thing. It’s totally the wave of the future, a future invented by Apple via the iPhone and then handed off to Google and eventually Microsoft for shrinkwrapping. It’s easy to forget how pathetic things were before the iPhone, how we endured crappy cell service and endlessly stupid Web 1.0 stillborn services while we struggled to move from modems to DSL to shared cable to Edge to “3G” to realtime social media. Each level of service required the jujitsu and compromises of the previous era to pry open the running room to make the next corner turn. Jobs is no more the bad guy today than whoever will take Google’s place as the “revolutionary” next week.
The old saw is that you need to invent your enemy if they don’t exist, and nowhere is that more true in the realtime era. Watching Twitter struggle to stay ahead of its audience as it competes with Facebook for realtime services reminds us that doing this stuff is hard the first time but gets easier as the market rises to commoditize the disruption. It’s no accident that FriendFeed was co-designed by the Gmail designer, who leverages the emergence of a user base as a tool to drive wider adoption when the platform is more ready for them.
Arrington’s struggle to live in the future is our struggle of the near future, but it will be a lot easier for us as a result of his squeaky wheel. But let’s not kid ourselves: if Mike gets his way and Apple “caves” on Google Voice, he’ll dump the G2 only long enough to find a new leap ahead to accelerate. The good news for him and us is that we need just a very few such acquiescences to get to the point where the Dumb Pipes will blend seamlessly into a single platform. Of course, then we’ll all get iPhones anyway because they’ll run Google’s superior apps and all the AppStore offerings without conditions. Because the Dumb Pipes would have to be invented if they didn’t already exist.
All true, regardless Google will force the inevitable dumb pipe future via Android with or without Apple (or Mike)
great post… a totally new prospective…!
Great observation. Both Apple and Google love disruption. And this scheme fits what it did with the music industry: Got the music out under the tunecos onerous DRM and let the marketplace whack away until the DRM was exposed as the emperor’s new clothes. Maybe the difference is that Apple knows how to profit off disruption.
Apple fears Google Voice because it makes it much easier to try out and use other phones: you get visual voice mail with any phone, you can use the same phone number, and you don’t need me.com or iTunes for synchronization.
Apple’s tying products to each other is completely in character: they have done this for 20 years. It won’t work forever, but it will increase their revenues for a few years, and that’s all that matters.
interesting perspective. totally wrong, of course, but interesting anyway. black helicopters/23andme blimps type stuff though.
I think most geeks like “shiny metal objects” and the appetite and expectations of new technologies will never be satiated. It’s in our DNA.
Interesting headline… “The real truth” or your “Real fantasy” or maybe your “Real speculation?”
I believe you believe that the android phone will rule the world because of goog voice. Let’s see.
“Namely, that Apple is conspiring with Google to force the FCC to “force” Apple to, regrettably, open the door to VoIP and the Universal Inbox.”
Don’t you mean “to ‘force’ AT&T to, regrettably,..”?
And also, … “regrettably”? why so… sounds like a good idea to me.
“force” is in quotation marks because it wouldn’t really be forcing Apple to do something they actually wanted to do….. I also thing regrettably was not serious since once again, it what Apple wants, but they just will pretend to “regret” having to open up to VoIP.
oh, also…
“Of course, then we’ll all get iPhones anyway because they’ll run Google’s superior apps and all the AppStore offerings without conditions.”
“Superior apps”? Please.
Apps written for a consistent hardware platform are by nature generally going to be better than those written for a balkanized hardware group.
This article makes perfect sense. They need to do whatever they can to usher in the new era of Dumb Pipes! If that means dusting off a copy of The Prince, so be it.
Just look at Apple’s attempted non-poaching agreement with Palm for an example of it’s inclination to coordinate with other companies in shared strategic interests. But certain, more benevolent “conspiracies” like Operation Dumb Pipes are better left uncovered, no? Shouldn’t you be making a mountain over the google voice app molehill like everyone else?
Still think Schmidt’s resignation from Apple’s board had almost as much to do with Google Voice as it did with Chrome OS.
The App store is not a public space ( remember Howard Stern ) and therefore the FCC is limited in what it can do. Apple’s just being polite and not looking to pick a needless fight with the BB owning retards at the FCC. My recommendation is that the FCC butt out of this privately owned enterprise. Trying to make itself relevant by questioning Apple’s intent is fouling no one.
I completely agree and I’m glad you said this. Apple is loving the idea of getting carterfone/net neutrality applicable to the wireless world. It helps them in so many ways as a hardware and software company.
Apple most definitely does not want dumb pipes for iPhone. The iPhone is a nice business because of over-priced, metered pipes. The iPhone is the ultimate closed loop and therefore very effective at generating profits. The future of Apple is subscriptions tied to Apple devices and network services – whether texting, metered data, mobileMe or iTunes.
Actually, Apple makes vast majority of it’s revenues off the hardware (AppleTV excepted), not the subscriptions tied to Apple devices and network services.
The apps help keep people tied to iPhone, cause they won’t work anywhere else, but Apple would prefer cheaper pipes because more people would buy iPhones.
Apple doesn’t make any more or less money whether you have the most expensive cell plan or the cheapest cell plan. That would be AT&T trying to do that to recoup the subsidy they pay Apple for each iPhone sold.
It’s about profits, not revenue and Apple’s profit growth is largely coming from iPhone service plans.
I disagree, from what I’ve read, Apple might some money off the service plans of the iPhone but makes most of the profit off the hardware sales. Apple has always been a hardware company with >30% profit margins. AT&T eats a big subsidy every time it sells a phone and gives it to Apple. Apple simply spreads out the purchase price of the iPhone over 8 quarters with GAAP accounting.
But Apple does make money off of all phases of the iPhone-hardware sales, app sales, iTunes sales, movies, TV shows, made-for-iPhone peripherals and even a bigger than normal cut of retail through its own Apple stores.
No one else has figured how to do that yet.
Apple could sell the iPhone unlocked and untethered to AT&T and still be reeling in ungodly profit growth.
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This article has a few logical errors.
1-How does Gilmor explains Apple banning the Palm Pre from iTunes?
2-What about the fact that Google is the largest collector of personal data and has been accused by many groups to violate their copyrights?
3-What about the fact that Apple gets a share of every dollar users make when they dial a phone call from their iPhones, unlike other cell phone providers?
4-What about the fact that Google through its free programs, routinely violates the privacy of users and targets them with advertisements based on the contents of their emails, for example?
If people are looking for corporate heroes to rescue them, they should look elsewhere.
You don’t appear to be kidding so a few explanations might be useful.
Providing email service is not a free endeavor, especially to a huge and ever increasing number of people. Google has always been candid about how they provide targeted ads based on email content. That is how they generate revenue to provide the service. If you don’t approve of the deal then go elsewhere. No one is forcing you to use gmail.
Someone sees an opportunity to extract money from a company with deep pockets by making accusations about copyright violation? Say it ain’t so! Oh, how can the world be so cynical? For reference you should check the differences between accusations and successful prosecution.
“Apple banning the Palm Pre from iTunes”. iTunes is software owned and developed by Apple, not a public utility. By what convoluted thought process does one conclude that Apple has an obligation to provide software and service for a competitor? Palm should be creating new and better software for utilizing their product.
I don’t know what Apple’s contract with AT&T specifies for revenue sharing so unlike others I won’t pretend to know.
@Steve Bryan. I’ve heard of Mac apologists fanboys, but it’s the first time I see a real Google apologist.
Google doesn’t have to target ads that read your messages’ contents to generate ad revenue in Gmail. It can still plaster ads all over its interface without having to peak through your messages. I once sent a message from Gmail to a Chinese friends. My gmail account was plastered with ads in Chinese characters. That was creepy and one of the reasons I stopped using their service.
The copyrights’ violations accusation comes from no less than various newspapers, book publishers and writers’ industry associations and representatives. GoogleBooks copying books and putting their contents online without first securing any authorization is not an accusation by groups for a quick cash grabs. It’s a means to protect their intellectual property which Google violates freely because it thinks it’s justified to archive the world’s information and tag some stupid context sensitive ad on top of it.
The question about Apple refusing the Palm Pre access to iTunes is about the very open standards and consumer options the author of this article argued Apple was fighting for. Therefore, if Apple is fighting for open standards, why does it shut access to its own platform to competitors, when it suits its purpose?
Again there is no logic in the article above or any of your own comments.
>Therefore, if Apple is fighting for open standards, why does it shut access to its own platform to competitors, when it suits its purpose?
In order to create the appropriate conditions for a credible alternative that brings another carrier into compliance with the disruption. Once there are two carriers offering similar services, the other carriers and vendors are working in concert to morph the industry to the new paradigm.
“I once sent a message from Gmail to a Chinese friends. My gmail account was plastered with ads in Chinese characters. That was creepy and one of the reasons I stopped using their service.”
Do you really think some person is able to endure the boredom of actually reading your email? Google is about algorithms and execution. Your email is filtered through algorithms to attempt to provide a better result for advertisers and present ads that have a better chance of actually being useful to you. You can choose to ignore the ads. In any case they pay for your email service.
Since it does (apparently) matter to you that your email was being examined by Google’s algorithms for commercial reasons, you should know that it is still being examined by conceivably more insidious organizations (NSA and other national intelligence organizations with global ambitions). When you use (unencrypted) email, you are using the equivalent of post cards for communication. But in this case it isn’t your friendly neighborhood postman who can scan your messages. If you care then encrypt, but frankly, almost nobody does.
The GoogleBooks incident is about books that have been long abandoned by publishers (long out of print and available only at research libraries) who are only interested now that someone has done the work to possibly make them available and useful again. A project in which those parties showed no interest until Google’s work and Congress’s and the Court’s decision to create perpetual copyright made it a simple matter of forcing expensive litigation.
Your comment about Palm Pre and Apple is nonsense. Apple does supply public API’s for individuals and companies to use. People who use those are usually treated well. If you reverse engineer and hack into software and systems then the results are almost always ephemeral. That reality is common to Apple, Microsoft, Palm or any other organization that supports public API’s. To pretend otherwise is dumb, playing dumb, or possibly naive.
And at first I thought this article was a suck up to the boss. It’s actually quite plausible.
Apple doesn’t need $T. In fact, $T has been causing $APPL quite a lot of embarrassment, compared to carriers outside of North America.
In fact, after years of negligence, and AT&T not learning their anti-trust lessons from last time this is the perfect time for the FCC to become Apple and Google’s catspaw.
Whatever comes of the Apple-Google-ATT thing, the FCC needs to get more sophisticated with the ‘net, user privacy and anti-trust in this area — only one way to do that, get your hands dirty.
I’ve got an HTC Ion running Android from the cupcake source repository and using a sim card from my old G1. I decide what goes into and what does not go into my phone’s OS. Not Google. Not T-Mobile. Pretty soon this ability will be simplified and all users will be empowered to assemble their mobile OS from whatever pieces they choose.
The carriers will need help from the government to stop this. There will be a lot of money flowing through the hands of telecom lobbyists.
Apple will not be able to do anything but watch their mobile OS functionality become more and more irrelevant, just like Windows on the desktop. Jobs will retreat into iTunes and setup defenses to continue his ideological battle there.
scott your tin foil hat is slipping off your … pointy head.
Great writing,
Android is a very powerfull thing…….
It’s all b.s. anyways. Apple wants to be a control nazi, you have to jailbreak your phone to put any good apps on it like spoofapp for instance:
After 192 days Apple has finally rejected SpoofApp.
“We’ve reviewed SpoofApp and determined that we cannot post this version of your iPhone application to the App Store at this time because it allows users to anonymously make calls and/or wrongly identifies the caller ID of the phone (known as Caller ID spoofing). We have chosen to not publish this type of application to the App Store.” – iPhone Developer Program
So what you are saying is Apple makes shiny plastic and a pretty UI, but we will use google apps to get things done.
Works for me.
Very useful post.. great insight into both the big giants Apple and Google products..
“this is the perfect time for the FCC to become Apple and Google’s catspaw” – Drunken Economist
“Apple is conspiring with Google to force the FCC to “force” Apple to, regrettably, open the door to VoIP and the Universal Inbox. ” – Steve Gillmor
Interesting thoughts/sounds bytes..
I still don’t get where you’re getting this Google Maximizing Some Hypothetical Moving the Voicemail Off the Device Market. Google makes money off search, still, primarily. If what you’re suggesting is that voicemail search might be important later, okay, sure. But now we’re back into anti-competitive territory, and Apple’s still trying to keep apps off its very popular platform if they want to make stuff that does the same things.
Which is pretty much what antitrust law was invented for.
How soon until mass routing around apple begins to happen? – I am tethering with my iphone when I need to without jailbreaking the iPhone. Others have the Google app before it was pulled. In general Apple still has my trust – if they let a few more things like the Yelp AR app slip through, all the better.
I can tether, run FTP and web *servers,* use apps like Locale and Carr Matey that require background processes, install and run unauthorized software, and install and download from alternate markets, even, without even getting root access to my Android phone.
And if I do root it, that’s not the same as “jailbreaking” – I’m still getting a replacement gratis if the phone.
Personally, I enjoy doing business with companies that don’t require me to trust them. Faith is for friends and spouses and Jesus, not corporations.
Oh and I can MMS pics to my kids’ dumb phones with my Android phone, no trust in, hope for, or charity toward Google required on my part. I just can, right now.